Asteroid 2024 YR4 And Its Potential Impact On Earth
JAKARTA - A newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has an average chance of hitting Earth by 2032. While the possibility of this collision is relatively small, astronomers continue to track this space rock movement for further information.
Quoted from CNN, scientists have planned to use the most advanced observatory ever launched into space for more in-depth analysis.
Not much is known about 2024 YR4, but this asteroid is estimated to have a width of between 40 and 90 meters, or at least the size of a large building.
According to Dr. Paul Chodas, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), is still much smaller than the giant asteroid that caused the extinction of 66 million dinosaurs last year.
"Asteroids of planetary destruction generally have a diameter of more than one kilometer and can have a huge impact on life on Earth," he said.
The 2024 Asteroid YR4 was first detected by the ATLAS telescope at Rio Hurtado, Chile, on December 27, 2024. Since then, astronomers have used various telescopes, including Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, Danish Telescope, and Very Large Telescope in Chile to monitor its movements.
Currently, the asteroid is more than 48 million kilometers from Earth and continues to move away as it moves around the Sun. However, as this asteroid could only be observed until April before disappearing from view, scientists plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope to measure its size and orbit more accurately.
"By seeing asteroids in the infrared spectrum, Webb will help determine how much threat might be caused," CNN said of the potential asteroid to hit Earth.
Although small, asteroids in the 2024 YR4 size range can cause regional destruction if they actually collide with Earth. If it is at the largest end of the estimated size, which is 90 meters, the impact could destroy an area of tens of kilometers from the point of collision.
At a speed of about 17 kilometers per second, the asteroid has the potential to cause a massive explosion like the Tunguska event in 1908, which razed 2,000 square kilometers of forest in Siberia. In comparison, an asteroid measuring about 20 meters that exploded in Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013 generated 20'30 times larger energy than the Hiroshima atomic bomb, damaging more than 7,000 buildings, and injuring more than 1,000 people.
"If YR4 is larger in size, the impact will certainly be much wider," CNN analyzed.
If scientists could not collect enough data before the asteroid disappears from view in April 2025, YR4 would remain on the risk list until it could be re-observed in June 2028. However, based on current orbital estimates, this asteroid will not be a threat to Earth that year.
Currently, scientists continue to find around 3,000 near-Earth objects each year, but asteroids in the YR4 size range are harder to detect as they are smaller and darker. It is estimated that there are about 600,000 asteroids this size in the Solar System, but only about 12,000 have been found.
"Small asteroids often enter the atmosphere and burn as fireballs, but larger ones like this need to be monitored because of their greater potential impact," said Larry Denneau, astronomer from the University of Hawaii and researcher at ATLAS.
"We continue to monitor the sky to ensure that we are always one step ahead in dealing with this potential threat," he added.
With various monitoring and research efforts, scientists hope to uncover more information about 2024 YR4 and assess how much risk it poses if the asteroid hits Earth.