Economic Growth In The 2024 Quarter-IV Is Predicted To Slow Down

JAKARTA - Head of Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede estimates that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be around 4.91 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter of 4.95 percent (yoy).

"The economic slowdown is influenced by household consumption which is estimated to grow 4.85 percent (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2024 from the previous quarter 4.91 percent (yoy)," he said in his statement, Tuesday, February 4.

According to Josua, there are several indications of a slowdown in household consumption in the last quarter of 2024, including the slowdown in the M2 money supply in a broad sense in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was recorded at 4.35 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter of 7.19 percent (yoy).

Then the retail sales rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 also tends to slow down to 1.00 percent (yoy) from 4.75 percent (yoy) in the previous quarter.

In addition, based on BPS data, the movement of land, air and rail transportation passengers also contracted 0.12 percent (yoy), 14.57 percent (yoy) and 5.23 percent (yoy) throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, even at the end of the year there were seasonal factors for the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Meanwhile, automotive sales, both cars and motorbikes, also experienced a slowdown, as reflected in car sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, recorded 3.77 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter of 14.82 percent (yoy). Meanwhile, motorcycle sales also experienced a slowdown, which in the fourth quarter of 2024 was recorded at 3.60 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter 11.96 percent (yoy).

Meanwhile, Gross Fixed Capital Planting (PMTB) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is also estimated to slow down to 3.59 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter of 5.15 percent (yoy).

Josua said the slowdown in PMTB was influenced by a slowdown in building investment indicated by cement sales during the fourth quarter which recorded a contraction of 5.17 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter of 0.07 percent (yoy).

Then the growth rate of government consumption in the last quarter of 2024 also experienced a slowdown, namely in the range of 1.30 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter 4.62 percent (yoy).

Meanwhile, the slowdown in government consumption is indicated by the slowdown in the realization of the absorption of the employee expenditure budget of 0.5 percent (yoy), spending on goods of around 22.9 percent (yoy), capital expenditures of around 9.0 percent (yoy) and social assistance spending in the range of 19.7 percent (yoy) while only the realization of spending on interest payments on government debt has been recorded to increase.

Josua said that export net in the fourth quarter of 2024 is also expected to grow by 3.88 percent (yoy) from the previous quarter of 1.97 percent (yoy), indicated by an increase in non-oil and gas exports during the fourth quarter of 2024 by 8.5 percent (yoy).

"Overall, economic growth in 2024 is estimated to be around 5.00 percent (yoy) from 2023 which was recorded at 5.05 percent (yoy)," he concluded.