Rupiah Predicted Weakening To Level Rp16,270 Impact Trump Signs 10 Percent Increase In Chinese Product Import Tariffs

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, January 24, 2025 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Thursday, January 23, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange rate was closed down 0.02 percent to a level of Rp. 16,283 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.31 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,276 per US dollar.

Currency Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said Trump signaled plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports starting February 1, and warned of potential levies on the European Union.

"In addition, Trump will add a new tariff on the threat of sanctions against Russia if the country does not make an agreement to end its war in Ukraine. He added that this could also be applied to other participating countries," he said in his statement, quoted Friday, January 24.

In addition, Trump also promised to impose tariffs on the European Union, charge Canada and Mexico 25 percent, and said his government was discussing import duties of 10 percent against China as fentanyl was sent to the US from there.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Bank Indonesia (BI) is optimistic that Indonesia's economic performance in 2025 will experience a significant increase compared to the previous year.

This projection is based on various macroeconomic indicators that show a positive trend, even in the midst of ongoing global challenges.

Indonesia's economic growth in 2025 is estimated to be in the range of 4.7 percent to 5.5 percent.

This figure is projected to increase further in 2026 to 4.8 percent to 5.6 percent.

This projection is supported by inflation which is estimated to be maintained in Bank Indonesia's target of 2.5 percent plus minus 1 percent. The stability of the rupiah exchange rate will continue to be maintained in accordance with economic fundamentals.

Previously, BI decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 percent.

This policy was taken with the belief that inflation remains low and an additional stimulus is needed to support economic growth.

In addition, BI also emphasized the importance of digitization in various economic sectors.

This digitization includes micro-financial systems, government financial transactions, and other policies that support growth acceleration.

Despite being optimistic, BI remains alert to global dynamics, including geopolitical uncertainty that could affect the domestic economy. BI is committed to continuing to monitor global conditions so that the policy steps taken remain adaptive and responsive.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Friday, January 24, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,270-IDR 16,350 per US dollar.