BMKG Estimates Extreme Weather Will Not Happen During The 2025 New Year's Substitution

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the weather in most parts of Indonesia will be conducive to relatively safe rainfall from extreme weather on New Year's Eve 2024-2025.

"The current trend of extreme weather potential has shown a decline compared to the previous weeks in December 2024," said BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati in a statement in Jakarta, Tuesday, December 31, quoted by Antara.

Dwikorita explained that the decrease in rainfall was caused by a number of factors obtained based on the results of the BMKG team's analysis in the last few days.

The BMKG meteorological team found this factor, among others, was the presence of a low pressure pattern in the South China Sea which hindered the flow of rain clouds from the Asian Monsun and the cold surge to the Northern Equatorial Cross (CENS) which entered the western part of Indonesia.

In addition, BMKG also found that atmospheric phenomena such as Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that were not active in Indonesia, and began to cool down the sea level temperature anomaly around Indonesia helped reduce the formation of local clouds that triggered heavy rains.

BMKG assesses that this relatively safe weather condition provides an opportunity for people to celebrate New Year's Eve calmly even though they are expected to remain alert to potential changes in the existing atmospheric dynamics.

Dwikorita said this was because atmospheric conditions could change at any time following the existing dynamics, especially in areas that have a history of vulnerabilities for hydrometeorological disasters in the form of floods, landslides to tornadoes and the like, one of which is the southern region of West Java.

"We hope to continue to follow the development of weather forecast information published by the BMKG," he said.