GRC Survey: The Electability Of Wahyu-Wawa Unggungli Sis-Sukardi In The Kapuas Hulu Pilbup Survey

JAKARTA - Geopolitical Research Center (GRC) released the results of a survey related to the electability of the candidate pair for Regent and Deputy Regent of Kapuas Hulu in the 2024 Pilkada, after the campaign and public debate.

As a result, the cabup and cawabup pair number 2 Wahyudi Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa (Wahyu-Wawa) outperformed the pair number 1 Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi (Sis-Sukardi).

The Executive Director of the Geopolitical Research Center (GRC), Alfian Septiansyah explained, in a simulation of open questions when respondents were asked to provide a spontaneous answer without the influence of the suggested candidate pair's name, the result was that the Wahyu-Wawa pair was chosen at 48.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Sis-Sukardi pair was chosen at 41.4 percent, and 10.4 percent did not answer.

"In the simulation of closed questions, when the respondent was given a quasioner paper containing the choice of the candidate pair's name to choose directly. As a result, Wahyudi Hidayat-Oktavianus Wawa pair was chosen 53.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Fransiskus Diaan-Sukardi pair was selected at 40.5 percent, and 5.7 percent did not answer," said Alfian in his statement, Friday, November 22.

While simulations with duplicate ballots at the last stage, Alfian said the Wahyu-Wawa pair obtained 813 votes or 54.2 percent of the total valid votes. Meanwhile, the Sis-Sukardi pair obtained 667 votes or 44.46 percent of the total valid votes.

"Meanwhile, 20 ballots were not recorded," said Alfian.

Based on this result, continued Alfian, it can be concluded that the Wahyu-Wawa pair shows electability in all simulations. Both through open questions, closed questions, as well as selection simulations with duplicate ballots.

"Nevertheless, there are a number of voters who have not decided on their choice, which is reflected in the percentage of 'not answering', which can affect the dynamics of the election until the D day," said Alfian.

"Which provides high validity and reliability to the results obtained," he continued.

The GRC survey for the Kapuas Hulu Pilkada was conducted on November 10-20, 2024, through face-to-face interviews with respondents in all Kapuas Hulu areas.

Of the total 196,115 voters registered, 1,500 respondents were selected as survey samples. The selected respondents are representatives of various demographic segments, including age, gender, and education levels.

The withdrawal of this survey sample uses the Multistage Random Sampling method, which is a gradual random technique that allows representative selection of respondents from all areas of Kapuas Hulu Regency.

In this survey, the margin of error is estimated at 2.52 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.