Looking At The Long-Term Impact Of Childfree Trends That Soared In Indonesia

JAKARTA If more and more Indonesian women decide not to have children aka childfree, economists predict that it will cause economic problems for the country in the future.

Despite being pros and cons, the childfree phenomenon in Indonesia is getting higher. That is what can be seen from the findings of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in a report entitled Searching Childfree Traces in Indonesia.

The data shows that the prevalence of childfree women living in Indonesia currently reaches 8.2 percent or the equivalent of 71,000 women. This is the highest number in four years. In 2019, the childfree figure reached seven percent, then 6.3 percent and 6.5 percent in 2020 and 2021.

This survey was conducted on women aged 15 to 49 who were married, but had never given birth, and did not use contraception.

In the short term, childfree seems to have a positive impact on the country because it can ease the government's budget. But in the long term this trend has the potential to make the demographic structure unbalanced.

Hit South Korea And Japan

The decision to have children or not is the most privacy for every couple. However, this is still a polemic, one of which is in Indonesia. The childfree phenomenon is hitting various countries in the world, especially in Eastern Asia, such as South Korea (South Korea), China, and Japan.

South Korea is predicted to experience a significant population decline in the next 50 years, and its global population ranking is down 30 levels due to a very low birth rate and rapid aging, according to data in September 2024.

The country with the nickname Ginseng Country is facing serious demographic challenges following the choice of many young people to postpone or not want to marry or even not have children. This happened because of changes in social norms and lifestyles there. In addition, the work market in South Korea is also difficult and the price of houses continues to increase.

As a result of this childfree, South Korea's population is projected to be at 36 million by 2072. This figure means down 30.8 percent from 52 million this year. South Korea's population actually peaked in 2020, but data from statistical institutions say they have decreased since then.

The birth rate in Japan is also declining. Japan's Ministry of Health last year said a low birth rate had occurred since the past seven years. This condition makes the population of its citizens shrink and age rapidly.

Seeing this condition, the local government predicts that Japan's youth population will experience a drastic decline in 2030.

The popularity of young people will begin to decline drastically in the 2030s. The period of time was our last chance to reverse the downward trend in birth, "said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last year.

This condition is the government's top priority today. Japan will spend a budget of 3.5 trillion yen a year for child care and other actions to support its parents.

The Japanese government provides a fairly large direct so that citizens have prenatal education and care costs. In addition, they also offer flexible job style promotions and father leave.

Become A Burden Of The Government

What about childfree in Indonesia? What are the future impacts?

Referring to BPS data, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen sharply in the last five decades. In the 1970s, couples in Indonesia averaged 5.61 children. But this number fell to an average of 2.18 children in 2020.

If the childfree trend continues, BPS revealed that Indonesia is at risk of losing certain segments of generation in the pyramid of the population.

In the short term, the childfree phenomenon is said to reduce the government's budget because it reduces subsidies for education and health. Universitas Airlangga economist Prof Dra Ec Dyah Wulansari also explained, from an economic perspective, childfree is not always bad, even beneficial for a number of parties.

Perempuan yang memilih untuk tidak punya akan menambah kekutilifan dalam bekerja dan ini menguntungkan tempat perusahaan ia bekerja.

"For entrepreneurs, it's also nice, because the woman has no children, she can work and is not on maternity leave. There is a law, that a woman who works, and she gives birth, is entitled to leave. That's the employer's side," he said.

but according to the Organization's analysis for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), low fertility rates could lead to a population decline. The population aged 65 years and over for every 100 working-age people is also predicted to double out of 30 people by 2020 to 59 people by 2060 across the OECD region.

That way, the shrinkage of the worker population as happened in Japan has the potential to occur. This causes people to age so as to put social and economic pressure on the government, especially in the spending sector for pension and health services.

BPS agrees with this assumption. According to BPS in the short term, childfree women can indeed ease the burden on the government budget.

"But in the long term, the welfare of elderly childfree women will potentially become the responsibility of the state," said the BPS statement.