East Kalimantan Gubernatorial Election Survey: The Electability Of The Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji Pair Is Above 50 Percent, Defeating The Incumbent

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Voice Laboratory (LSI) survey institute released the results of a survey related to the electability of two pairs of candidates for Governor and Deputy Governor of East Kalimantan (Kaltim), namely the incumbent candidate Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi and his challenger, Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji.

As a result, the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair excel with an electability rate of above 50 percent.

LSI Executive Director, Albertus Dino explained the results of the top of mind when respondents were asked to choose which candidate to be elected as the head of the East Kalimantan region openly, the candidate pair Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji was said to be at most up to 54.1 percent.

"Then the incumbent pair Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi was said to be 25.8 percent, and those who did not mention the two candidate pairs were 20.1 percent," said Dini in her statement, Monday, October 7.

The survey results also show that the strength of the second candidate pair by simulations of closed questions using a voice card. As a result, the electability rate of the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair reached 66.1 percent, far ahead of the incumbent pair Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi who only got 28.3 percent. Meanwhile, 5.6 percent of respondents chose not to support the two pairs.

"The Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair seem to dominate electability with a percentage of 66.1 percent. This figure shows that they get significant support from the people of East Kalimantan, who seem more likely to choose them over the incumbent pair," he said.

Dino said the potential victory of the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair is also getting stronger. This result is related to a survey on the determination of the choice of the candidate pair for the East Kalimantan Regional Head during the election later.

"Compared to the choice when the survey was conducted and it is known that the level of determination chose 77.6 percent and which stated that it was still possible to change 22.4 percent," said Dino.

On the other hand, Dino continued, the Rudy-Seno survey benefited because the level of satisfaction with the incumbent pair's performance was quite low, with only 40.3 percent of respondents feeling satisfied, while another 59.7 percent said they were dissatisfied.

"The decline in the attractiveness of the incumbent pair, Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi, is quite striking," said Dino.

Dino explained that the incumbent pair's popularity was still quite high, reaching 84.9 percent compared to Rudy Mas'ud - Seno Aji which was at 80.3 percent.

However, the level of public preference and acceptance of the Rudy Mas'ud - Seno Aji pair is far superior, reaching 89.7 percent, while the incumbent only gets 52.8 percent.

"Positive images and realistic work programs are the key to the success of the Rudy Mas'ud - Seno Aji pair in winning the hearts of voters. On the other hand, incumbent couples, who have been known as political leaders of East Kalimantan, have experienced a decline in popularity and acceptability," he explained.

"This shows that incumbent status is no longer their main strength," continued Dino.

According to Dino, this survey also emphasized that the couple Rudy Mas'ud - Seno Aji managed to excel with an electability of 66.1 percent, far behind the Isran Noor - Hadi Mulyadi pair who only won 28.3 percent.

"This defeat marks a decrease in electoral support for incumbents, while Rudy Mas'ud - Seno Aji continues to strengthen their position as the leading candidate in the East Kalimantan Pilkada," he concluded.

This survey was conducted in the period September 25-5 October 2024 involving 800 women and 850 men spread across 7 districts and 3 cities in East Kalimantan Province proportionally.

Sampling based on the population of voters remains in East Kalimantan using the multistage random sampling method.

Meanwhile, the margin of error is approximately 2.41 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.