Received By Ahok's Sympathizer, Supporter Anies Baswedan Did Not Choose Ridwan Kamil In The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election
JAKARTA - The majority of Anies Baswedan voters are said to not have a candidate for governor and deputy governor (readgub-readwagub) Ridwan Kamil and Suswono. Thus the results of the Political Strategy Group (PSG) survey related to the 2024 Jakarta Governor and Deputy Governor Election (Pilgub) and the direction of supporting support for Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) and Anies Baswedan.
PSG Researcher Chief Ahsan Ridhoi said the survey compared the results of support for three names of electability questions, namely Anies, Ahok, and Ridwan Kamil (RK), with two questions of two names, namely Anies versus (vs) RK and Ahok vs RK.
"The RK is acceptable to the majority of Ahok supporters and almost the majority of Anies supporters, but the majority of Anies voters will not vote for RK," said Ahsan, Saturday.
The survey was conducted on August 6-15, 2024 using the multistage random sampling method. The number of samples is 1,540 people. Error tolerance (margin of error) is around 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained.
This survey was conducted before the registration of the read governor-readwagub pair. Ahsan explained, in the survey as many as 39% of respondents chose to support Anies Baswedan, Ahok by 22% and Ridwan Kamil by 15%.
"This means that the residents of Jakarta basically tend to want their former governor to return to lead Jakarta," he said.
Hal tersebut juga bercorrelated dengan angka kesuasan masyarakat terhadap Anies dan Ahok. "Jadi, remempatnya sweet kayaknya dengan Pak Anies, dengan Pak Ahok. Jadi mereka lebih (dilih) kembali, sedangkan Ridwan Kamil itu hanya terbatas di 15%," ucap Ahsan.
According to him, Ridwan Kamil's loyal voters are actually very small when faced with Anies and Ahok. Fans of RK (Ridwan Kamil) are almost 20% of the Jakarta population.
However, Ahsan realized that only Ridwan Kamil, who officially registered as a candidate for governor to the Jakarta Provincial KPU, was Ridwan Kamil. On the other hand, as many as 58% of respondents are likely to vote for Ridwan Kamil, but it depends on his opponent.
Of the 58%, only 19% expressed their loyalty to Ridwan Kamil and did not change support. Meanwhile, 42% of respondents confirmed that they would not support Ridwan Kamil whoever the opponent was. "This means that there are many 'vocational swing' that can be explored," he said.
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The PSG survey also revealed that the Jakarta gubernatorial election will take place in two rounds or it will be very difficult for just one round.
"The opportunity for one round is still thin. In Jakarta, there is still more than 50% of the number of valid votes to be elected governor, so there is a possibility of two rounds," said Ahsan.
He assessed that RK should be able to attract Anies supporters and Ahok supporters, who may choose the PDI Perjuangan (Pramono Anung-Rano Karno) if they want to survive until the second round. "Therefore, it is unlikely that RK will get the majority support in the first round," concluded Ahsan.