Refly Harun Doubts Jokowi's Victory In 3 Periods: Gerindra, Golkar And Even NasDem Can Block It

JAKARTA - Constitutional Law expert Refly Harun doubts Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will win if he is willing to run again as president for three terms. Because this discourse will move in the circle of palace power which of course has an interest.

Where, when faced with the issue of an extension of the term of office, it is unlikely that the palace environment will support 100 percent. "The question is whether the palace will be unified? I doubt that," Refly said in a virtual discussion on the Trijaya Polemic entitled Mystery 2024, Saturday, March 20.

According to Refly, the lack of cohesiveness in the palace to support Jokowi in the third term is because each political party already has its own presidential candidate. Moreover, there are parties waiting for the ball to be scored if Jokowi no longer registers as a presidential candidate.

"For example, if the agenda is pushed, does Gerindra want it? Because Prabowo must think, well, this is the time (to become president, red) because there are no more competitors who tackle him twice," said Refly.

Then, continued Refly, there is NasDem with its party convention agenda. Where at this time we have stepped up to do the convention next year.

"Airlangga Hartarto, has even been on a safari, in a coalition with all political parties to explore 2024. Even the Golkar National Conference has appointed Airlangga as a presidential candidate," he explained.

According to Refly, the elite interests around these different powers will become an obstacle to the realization of the 3 periods.

In addition, there were constitutional changes which Refly himself understood were never in a political vacuum. But there are always waves of reforms and revolutions.

"Indonesia is also like that constitutional reform is due to the fall of the regime. I see there are factors that are not easy (for Jokowi's 3 terms)," he said.

President Joko Widodo could have fallen into the issue of 3 terms. Because according to him, Jokowi is also a politician who has been inconsistent with his words several times.

"How do we talk about the consistency of a politician? Jokowi has already demonstrated the inconsistency, for example when he banned concurrent positions in the first period," said Refly.

"I remember that Wiranto had to choose to become a Hanura chairman or a minister. Cak Imin was also asked to vote and say that he chose PKB even though actually becoming a minister was also in the process of consideration," he added.

However, continued Refly, in the second term, many of Jokowi's ministers held concurrent positions. However, Jokowi did not mind.

"We know that Airlangga is the party chairman, Prabowo then Suharso and even Moeldoko can take over the leadership of the party when he is still the KSP. Now this shows that the inconsistency of the politician can be seen from both positive and negative sides," explained Refly.

Refly explained that from the positive side, it is true that the wave of change needs to be addressed in a different way.

"We previously said B, but in a negative way, this can't be held. A statement like that is a statement that can be issued at any time, but there is no legal consequence.

Even though the commitment was not obeyed, he said, it turned out that he could be elected even though he took inconsistent steps.

"Because political punishment is not straightforward either. So when a person is different from what was said before, it is not certain that he or she is not elected the same as an inconsistent political party is not necessarily not re-elected because the electoral logic is different," said Refly.