Slowing Global Economic Growth, Sri Mulyani Beware Of Slowing State Revenue

JAKARTA The current global economic condition is still colored by geopolitical pressures that threaten stability. In this case, tensions between Iran and Israel have raised various risks to the world economy because it has an impact on the movement of oil prices.

On the other hand, the growing economic condition of the United States is good but inflation has not decreased at the expected level, this condition prompted the United States Central Bank, The Fed, to delay the decline in interest rates, sparking fears of outflows or capital outflows.

All of these dynamics make the projected economic growth tend to stagnate. The IMF projects world economic growth at 3.2. Meanwhile, OECD and the World Bank project in lower numbers, namely 2.9 and 2.4. For inflation, the average world inflation projection is at 5.9 and this is down from 6.8 in the previous year.

As for inflation, developed countries have decreased at the level of 2.6. As for developing countries, this year's inflation projection is at the level of 8.3.

The global situation that tends to weaken is coupled with pressure from geopolitical, commodity prices, inflation, and interest rates affecting the world's economic performance, especially in terms of manufacturing. The majority of the world's PMI Manufacturing countries are still contractive at around 52.2 percent while only 47.8 percent are expansive in which Indonesia is included.

Despite the global situation showing signs of slowdown, Indonesia maintains expansive manufacturing activity, as well as an index of consumer confidence which is still increasing at 127.7. This made Indonesia's economy grow again in the first quarter of 2024 to reach 5.11 percent.

Seeing this, the Minister of Finance (Menkeu) Sri Mulyani Indrawati assessed that the household consumption sector is still one of the factors that contribute to this economic growth.

"Our Growth, which has been conveyed by BPS at 5.11, is relatively seen from an encouraging side, although of course we have to look at the various factors that contribute to this growth, one household consumption is slightly below 5 percent, namely from 4.9," he explained in his statement, quoted on Sunday, June 9.

According to Sri Mulyani, although in 3 consecutive years Indonesia's household consumption growth at the level of 4.9 or even last year was at 4.8. However, this is still relatively comparable.

For information, state revenues until April 30, 2024, amounted to IDR 924.9 trillion or 33.04 percent of the APBN target. This achievement decreased by 7.6 percent compared to last year's IDR 75.72 trillion.

In nominal terms, the realization of the State Revenue component sourced from tax revenues reached IDR 719.91 trillion, Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) reached IDR 203.33 trillion, and the realization of Grants reached IDR 1.68 trillion. Based on its growth, the realization of tax revenues and PNBP contracted 8.02 percent (yoy) and 6.69 percent (yoy), respectively.