Rupiah Potentially Back To IDR 15,000 Per US Dollar Until The End Of The Year

JAKARTA - Chief Economist Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Rully Arya Wisnubroto said the movement of the rupiah could still move higher at the level of IDR 15,000 to IDR 15,500 per US dollar by the end of 2024.

"For the rupiah, by the end of the year it should be below Rp. 15,000 per US dollar, precisely in the range of Rp. 15,000 to Rp. 15,500 per US dollar," he said in Media Day: April by Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Tuesday, April 23.

On the other hand, according to Rully, the movement of the rupiah will still be overshadowed by external sentiment, such as monetary policy in the US and he assesses that the current condition of the Indonesian economy is still faced with many challenges, one of which is the biggest challenge today, namely the high pressure on the rupiah exchange rate.

On the other hand, Rully said that the movement of the rupiah in the medium term is still very difficult to predict because it is strongly influenced by global issues, not influenced by domestic conditions.

According to Rully, the trend of weakening the rupiah was mainly due to higher-for-longer sentiment in the Fed policy interest rates which again caused volatility and uncertainty in the global market.

"This global sentiment, which also has an impact on the large flow of foreign capital out of Indonesia, makes it difficult for BI to relax monetary policy in the near future," he said.

Rully said that with higher for longer sentiment and geopolitical conflicts, Bank Indonesia will raise interest rates in the near future to reduce the Rupiah's canal higher.

"So like it or not, I think Bank Indonesia should raise interest rates, although not automatically, the rupiah will strengthen down to IDR 16,000 per US dollar. But at least to hold back from experiencing further depreciation," he said.