Mapping The 2020 Pilkada Vulnerability Level

JAKARTA - Pilkada 2020 will be held in 270 regions, with 9 provinces, 224 regencies and 37 cities. Of the 270 regions, there are a number of areas that are vulnerable and need increased security at the time of voting, 23 September.

For the district / city level; Manokwari Regency, West Papua is the area with the highest vulnerability score based on the Election Hazard Index (IKP). Next is Mamuju District, West Sulawesi; Makassar City, South Sulawesi; Central Lombok Regency, West Nusa Tenggara; and East Kotawaringin District, Central Kalimantan.

Meanwhile, at the provincial level, North Sulawesi was the region with the highest hazard score; then Central Sulawesi, West Sumatra, Jambi and Bengkulu.

"This figure is taken from measurements of four dimensions and 15 subdimensions that reflect the vulnerability of the regional elections," said Head of Bawaslu Abhan.

The four dimensions measured in the IKP are; First, the dimensions of social and political connection with the sub-dimensions of environmental security, election management authority, state administering authority, and power relations at the local level.

Second, the dimensions of free and fair elections with the subdimensions of voting rights, campaign implementation, voting, adjudication of election objections, and election supervision.

Third, the dimension of contestation with the subdimensions of political rights, the nomination process, and the candidate campaign. Fourth, the participation dimension with the sub-dimensions of voter participation, political party participation, and public participation.

Meanwhile, in January, the National Police determined that the Sulawesi region was declared the most vulnerable area in holding the Governor Election. But, the difference is, Southeast Sulawesi has become the main spotlight of the police, rather than North Sulawesi, which has become the spotlight of the Bawaslu.

"There are three governor elections in Southeast Sulawesi, North Sulawesi and South Kalimantan, which are high," said Head of Public Relations DivHumas Polri, Kombes Asep Adi Saputra.

Meanwhile, for districts, of the 224 regions holding elections, 7 of them are included in the potential vulnerability index. Meanwhile, out of 37 elections for mayor, only a few have the potential to cause chaos.

"Regional elections for regents such as Nabire, Keerom Papua, North Central Timor, West Manggarai, West Sumba, Tojo una-una in Central Sulawesi and Musi Rawas Utara in South Sumatra," said Asep while explaining the potential vulnerability of the mayor election.

"Pilkada mayor namely, Tomohon and Bitung in North Sulawesi and Tangsel, Banten," said Asep.

If Bawaslu maps four dimensions that are indicators in predicting the potential for regional workmanship, Polri maps three main factors, including Pilkada contestation. "The indicators are Pilkada organizers, Pilkada contestants, the number of social security disturbances and the threshold of disturbances," said Asep.

Based on the findings of this vulnerability, Bawaslu as the election supervisor asked the election organizer, namely the General Election Commission (KPU), to improve services, especially for the nomination process, both individual candidates and candidates promoted by political parties or coalitions of political parties.

"Service improvement must also be done in ensuring the accuracy of voter data and increasing public participation," he said.

To political parties, Bawaslu recommends increasing public access and involvement in the nomination process. "Political parties are also asked to carry out intensive political education throughout the 2020 Pilkada stages," said Abhan.

Furthermore, Bawaslu recommends that the government, both central and local governments, ensure support for the implementation of regional elections and intensify communication forums such as the regional leadership communication forum (forkopimda) and the religious harmony forum (FKUB) in their regions.

"This communication is important for consolidation and prevention of potential vulnerabilities," he said.