After The Declaration Of Anies-Imin, Ganjar Is Even More Sturdy In East Java

JAKARTA - President Ganjar Pranowo's candidate will excel in all simulations of the 2024 presidential candidate conducted by the Indonesian Political Indicator Survey Institute specifically for the East Java region. Ganjar also excelled when dealing with Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.

In the simulation of the three names of candidates for president, Ganjar excelled with survey results reaching 43.9 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto was 33.8 percent, and Anies Baswedan 14.4 percent. "From the survey, 8.0 percent have not shown any choice," said the Main Researcher of Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Sunday, October 1.

Indicators are also trying to simulate names that may deserve to be paired with Ganjar Pranowo. There were 19 names included by Indicators. As a result, Erick Thohir won 17.2 percent, Khofifah Indar Parawansa 15.1 percent, Mahfud MD 11.5 percent, Ridwan Kamil 9.2 percent, Sandiaga Uno 7.1 percent, Gibran 5.5 percent, Muhaimin Iskandar 4.9 percent and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 4.8 percent. While other names are less than 4 percent, they have not answered 15.2 percent.

He said, East Java, one of the provinces on the island of Java with a potential voter potential of around 16% of the total voters in Indonesia. The magnitude of the potential for voters in East Java is an attraction, especially ahead of the Presidential General Election.

Based on the results of the four presidential elections from 2004 to 2019, the winner of the presidential election has always been a pair who is also superior in East Java apart from other potential areas. This means that East Java is one of the keys to victory in the presidential election.

"To win the presidential election, it can't be done, the candidate pair and his team must take East Java as one of the priorities," he said.

According to him, talking about voting behavior in East Java, it cannot be separated from the largest mass organization in Indonesia Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). East Java has always been the basis of NU, and the direction of NU's support has also determined the choice of East Javanese.

Although often NU does not officially support one of the partners in the presidential election, residents read the side of the NU kyai and make it one of the considerations in choosing.

"Knowing this tendency, the candidates are fighting for NU's support ahead of the election, either by carrying out candidates with NU backgrounds or visiting NU kyai to show closeness, with the hope that NU's kyai carriages will be moved to support the candidate," he said.

The survey methodology uses the population of all Indonesian citizens in East Java who have the right to vote in general elections. Those who are 17 years old or older, or are already married when the survey is conducted.

Sampel withdrawal using the multistage random sampling method. In this survey the number of samples was 1810 people. Assuming a simple random sampling method, the sample size of 1,810 respondents had a margin of error-moe of around +2.4% at a 95 percent confidence level. The sample comes from all regencies/cities in East Java which are proportionally distributed.

The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained. Quality control of the interview results was conducted randomly by 20% of the total sample by supervisors by returning to the selected respondents (spot check).