UN Predicts Tigray Conflict Will Expand Instability In Ethiopia

JAKARTA - The conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia is predicted to trigger an expansion of instability throughout the country. United Nations (UN) Head of Assistance Mark Lowcock conveyed this as a warning.

Lowcock made the warning to 15 members of the Security Council in a virtual meeting on Wednesday, February 3. According to him, the humanitarian situation in northern Ethiopia could be the worst.

Lowcock said there were reports of increased insecurity elsewhere, which may be due to the vacuum created by the re-deployment of Ethiopian troops to Tigray. The UN is concerned about the potential for broader national and regional destabilization.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered air and ground attacks on November 4 against Tigray's ruler, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) for defying his authority. Abiy's federal army ousts the TPLF from the regional capital Mekelle, but low-scale fighting continues.

In a region of more than five million people, thousands are believed to have died and 950,000 people have fled their homes since fighting began. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is "very concerned" about the situation in Tigray, a UN spokesman said late Tuesday, February 2.

Lowcock said the Abiy government controlled between 60 percent and 80 percent of the territory on Tigray. However, they do not have complete command of the ethnic Amhara and Eritrean forces also operating in the region.

Dozens of witnesses said Eritrean troops were on Tigray to support Ethiopian forces, although both countries deny this. The UN has received reports that the police are operating at a fraction of their previous capacity.

Lowcock believes that if protection and assistance are not improved immediately the humanitarian situation will worsen. He said there were allegations of sexual and gender-based violence.

Several senior UN officials recently visited Ethiopia to push for greater access to Tigray. Lowcock hopes there will be concrete progress in the coming days to allow aid to scale up.