An Increase In Electricity Demand After The Pandemic Must Be Anticipated

JAKARTA - One of the bases for the construction of power plants in the national project to provide electricity for 35,000 MW is the assumption of economic growth of around 6 percent and above. The pandemic then threw that growth away.

However, it is believed that the industrial sector will grow back positively (rebound) as soon as the pandemic is over. The availability of electrical energy is considered by many circles, it is crucial to anticipate the increase in investment and the economic rate.

"If the pandemic is over, industry grows, people's activities will recover, electricity consumption will certainly recover quickly and even increase," said ReforMiner Executive Director Komaidi Notonegoro, Friday, January 29.

He advised the government to complete the implementation of the 35,000 MW project, in order to maintain the availability of electricity later. Komaidi said that the decrease in demand for electricity was due to the pandemic and restrictions which affected many economic sectors.

The condition of the business world that has improved after this year's vaccination demands sufficient electricity availability. The government's plan to stop the construction of a PLTU with a total power of 15.5 GW in RUPTL 2021-2030, is judged to be moderately corrected.

The Ministry of Industry agrees that there is an improving trend in investment and a post-epidemic surge projection. Expert Staff to the Minister of Industry for Business Climate and Investment Imam Haryono admitted that throughout 2020 the growth of the industrial sector was still contracting. However, he emphasized that the improvement trend remains. Over the past year, growth is predicted to contract, aka minus 2.22 percent.

"From the perspective of industry players' perceptions, there is an important indicator, namely PMI," he said.

PMI or Purchasing Managers Index itself is an economic indicator created by surveying a number of Purchasing Managers in various business sectors. The higher the PMI figure, the more optimism that business sector players are in regarding future economic prospects.

The Indonesian PMI Index has continued to improve since September. In December, the PMI rose significantly to 51.3. Imam said that the trend of industrial sector expansion and the increase in the PMI value are important assets in boosting the growth of the industrial sector in 2021.

"In 2021, it is projected that all industrial sub-sectors will be able to grow positively," added Imam.

It seems that the COVID-19 pandemic conditions that are suppressing the growth of the manufacturing sector do not seem to have much influence on the investment side of this sector. Investment contraction in Indonesia is quite low when compared to other ASEAN countries amid the pandemic. There are plans to relocate several factories from China which prove that Indonesia is one of the investment destinations after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) noted that in January-December 2020, the realization of investment in the industrial sector reached IDR 272.9 trillion. This figure contributed 33 percent of the total national investment value which reached IDR 826.3 trillion.

Minister of Industry Agus Gumiwang also targets the realization of investment in the manufacturing sector in 2021 to reach IDR 323.56 trillion, up 18.56 percent from the 2020 realization of IDR 272.9 trillion.

This optimism is supported by the implementation of the Job Creation Law and the improvement of the world economy after vaccination. Therefore, all the necessary infrastructure, including electricity, must be fulfilled with a stable supply.

Meanwhile, DPR Commission VII member Mulyanto said the demand for electricity before COVID-19 only grew below 5 percent. The numbers have declined further after the COVID-19 disaster struck. In the midst of a surplus of electricity that has an impact on PLN's finances, he believes that the need for PLTU is inevitable. Apart from low cost, there is another reason in the form of abundant coal reserves.

Quoting data for the third quarter of 2020, PLN's (non-IPP) electric fuel load for water is Rp23 / kWh, coal Rp.419 per kWh, geothermal Rp.832 / kWh, gas Rp1,035 / kWh, and Rp. / kWh. Judging from these data, after water energy, coal energy is the cheapest source.

In line with Komaidi, Mulyanto agreed that the 35,000 MW project must continue. However, rescheduling in view of the economic dynamics needs to be done.