The Economic Impact Of Corona Virus Will Only Be Felt In The First Semester
JAKARTA - Chief Economist and Investment Strategist of PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia, Katarina Setiawan predicts the impact of the corona virus on the national economy will not be long. According to him, the impact of corona was only felt in the first semester of 2020, because the pattern was the same as other viral epidemics, such as SARS and MERS.
"So in the second quarter there will be hope if the pattern is the same as the previous disease cases. It's just that it is not certain how long it will take to resolve the new virus," said Katarina, Tuesday, February 18.
He said the negative impact of corona would not be significant in the long term so that the possibility of the current decline in stocks could be an opportunity for investors to buy at a cheaper price.
"If we assume this prediction is like previous cases of disease, and the impact of the corona is likely to be one quarter, and on the stock market, the worst possible four months," he said.
He acknowledged that the initial market reaction to corona tended to be negative, this was due to the uncertainty factor, which resulted in negative sentiment.
"We expect the market to subside after the intensity of the spread of the virus drops, and investors are reanalyzing the real impact of the outbreak on the economy and corporate earnings," he said.
He assessed that the global impact of corona was mostly targeting the tourism sector, both retail, transportation, hotels and restaurants.
"For Indonesia it is quite fortunate, because so far it does not depend too much on the tourism sector because this sector only contributes 1.8 percent of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP)," he said.
Katarina admitted, Indonesia's position is still better than Thailand, where 12 percent of its GDP still depends on tourism.
"What investors need to pay attention to is the impact on commodity price movements which have an impact on the stock market and the Indonesian economy," he said.