The 2024 Presidential Election Is Different, CSIS Predicts That NasDem And PDIP Will Follow KIB To Form A Rival Coalition

JAKARTA - Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change at CSIS, Arya Fernandes, believes that other parties will follow Golkar, PAN and PPP to form a counter-axis to the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB).

The reason is that the parties are now starting to realize that the coalition formed earlier, long before the official registration of presidential candidates opens on October 19, 2023, will be very strategic in facing the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres).

This was conveyed by Arya after explaining that there was a different tendency in the 2024 Presidential Election with the contestation that had occurred in Indonesia. CSIS concluded that the discrepancy consisted of three trends.

The first trend is that parties will be encouraged to form coalitions early considering that there are many candidates who have the potential to be nominated by political parties. entitled "The Maneuver of the Party Coalition Ahead of the Presidential Election: Motivation and Resilience" online, Wednesday 8 June.

Second, he continued, CSIS predicts that an important factor in influencing the future map of the coalition lies in the views of party leaders or elites. This is clearly different from the previous presidential election, where the candidate factor is important.

Third, the coalition's solidity is predicted to be dynamic, it can change depending on the results of the legislative elections. "The early coalition and its solidity will depend on the results of the legislative elections because it will also affect how the nomination map will be in the upcoming regional elections," he said.

Of the three trends conveyed by Arya, they are based on the number of potential candidates for political parties to nominate. Both candidates who are in the first, second, or third tier.

Therefore, Arya considered the coalition formed earlier to be very strategic. At least now only one coalition has been formed, namely KIB.

In the near future, Arya predicts another coalition will emerge. CSIS predicts the formation of a new coalition after KIB comes from a medium party. "NasDem is one of them, maybe PDIP," he added.