Analysis Of Indonesian Political Indicators Regarding Survey Findings, Ganjar-Anies Is More Prospective Than Prabowo To Predict One Round Presidential Election

JAKARTA - Indonesian Political Indicators researcher Bawono Kumoro responded to the results of the Indo Research survey which ranked Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan as 'The Big Three' which was released on Thursday, May 19, today.

According to him, the dynamics of the three major presidential candidates were also reflected in the results of the Indonesian Political Indicators survey for some time.

"Indonesian Political Indicators also found the same thing that the last survey also photographed the electoral dynamics of presidential candidates. Consistently the three names, namely Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies, are always in the top three but these figures have their own electoral dynamics," Bawono said when became a responder in the release of a survey entitled Election 2024: Potential for Two-Round Presidential Elections online, Thursday, May 19.

Interestingly, continued Bawono, Prabowo's electability tends to experience electoral instability. This means, he said, there are electoral fluctuations in the results of the Indonesian Political Indicators survey.

"At the end of last year, Prabowo's figure was still 25 percent, then in the February survey it fell to 22.4 percent, and in the April survey the number rose," he said.

Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo actually experienced a stable but rising trend. Then in the results of the Indo Research survey, it was found that the names of the two new generations, namely Ganjar and Anies, had a more prospective tendency than the name Prabowo.

"If we look at Prabowo's popularity, he is almost 100 percent because he is a veteran three times as an election participant. In 2009 he became a vice presidential candidate, in 2014 and 2019 he became a presidential candidate. This means that the public already knows him very well. Therefore, it is natural that the finding of Prabowo's popularity is 97.4 percent, "Bawono explained.

On the other hand, continued Bawono, Anies' popularity is still 87 percent. While Ganjar is still below it again with 70.3 percent.

"This means that the space for approaching 100 percent is still far away. So if Gerindra's job is to make the public prefer Prabowo, for Ganjar and Anies and his team, it's his job to introduce these two figures more and more," he said.

"The formula is known, liked and elected, winning prospects. The names of the new generation Anies and Ganjar have the prospect of going up electorally with a record of the dynamics of acceptability from voters, but we don't know what the dynamics are going forward. But the point is the new generation of candidates have prospects to appear than the old stock," continued Bawono.

Furthermore, regarding the candidate pairs, added Bawono, Indo Research predicts that there will be three pairs of candidates which will then proceed to the second round. Bawono admitted that the tendency of these three figures to form their respective axis, but there is a problem in PDIP where there are internal dynamics that have not been completed.

"We often hear rumors that PDIP has a Prabowo-Puan candidate. Puan is the crown princess of the general chairman, while Ganjar is unfortunately not the party's main figure. From the internal dynamics of PDIP this will determine 2 or 3 pairs of candidates who will appear later," said Bawono.

If, for example, PDIP supports Prabowo-Puan while Ganjar stays in the party, meaning that he is not attached to another party, it is highly likely that there will be two candidate pairs. One is from the party with Anies Baswedan.

"But if for example PDIP supports Prabowo-Puan but at the same time Ganjar accepts proposals from other parties to get presidential candidates, three pairs of candidates will be present," he explained.

"If this possibility occurs, the prediction for the presidential election will take place in two rounds. And the findings of Indo Research will find the reality. Because if three pairs of candidates are presented, it will be difficult to only hold one round," concluded Bawono.