If Ridwan Kamil Cancels Being A Presidential Candidate, He Will Have A New Rival If He Advances Again In The West Java Gubernatorial Election

JAKARTA - The Communications Image of the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA stated that Member of the Indonesian House of Representatives from the Golkar Party, Dedi Mulyadi, has become a "New Star" who will become a tough competitor for the Governor of West Java M Ridwan Kamil (RK) in the 2024 Governor and Deputy Governor Elections. .

Executive Director of LSI Communications Image Denny JA, Toto Izul Fatah, said that Dedi Mulyadi's position would be more relaxed if Ridwan Kamil re-nominated because he was running as a presidential or vice presidential candidate.

Toto Izul Fatah said the results were contained in a survey on the preferences of West Java residents towards candidates for Governor and Deputy Governor of West Java in 2024.

The survey was conducted on 2-7 February 2022 with face-to-face interviews using a multistage random sampling methodology. The number of respondents is 600 people with a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

Toto Izul Fatah, the potential for the former regent of Purwakarta for these two terms is clearly illustrated by his skyrocketing electability position as a potential newcomer.

However, when compared to Ridwan Kamil's electability position as the incumbent, he still leads. Toto mentioned their respective electability positions in various simulations of the number of candidates.

For the simulation of 20 candidates for governor, RK leads with 45.2 percent, Dedi Mulyadi with 24.7 percent, followed by Dede Yusuf with 8.5 percent.

While other candidates, starting from the current Deputy Governor of West Java, UU Ruzhanul Ulum, Cellica, Desy Ratnasari, Ahmad Syaikhu, Bima Arya, Nurul Arifin, Rieke Dyah Pitaloka, Ace Hasan Sadzily and others, are still below 5 percent.

When it was reduced to six candidates, RK 47.3 percent, DM 25.5 percent, Dede Yusuf 12.7 and others such as Uu Ruzhanul Ulum, Ahmad Syaikhu, M. Farhan still below 5 percent.

And interestingly, in the simulation of 10 candidates without Ridwan Kamil, Dedi Mulyadi's position shot to 38.0 percent, followed by Dede Yusuf to 22.7 percent, Uu Ruzhanul Ulum 6.7 percent, Desy Ratnasari 5.8 percent, Ahmad Syaikhu 3, 5 percent and Attalia Kamil 1.8 percent.

“From the simulation without Ridwan Kamil, it is clear that Kang DM received the most votes. Followed by Dede Yusuf who is also quite tall. Therefore, if RK ultimately chooses as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate, not as a cagub, then only Dedi Mulyadi has the potential to win," said Toto, Thursday, February 24, quoted from Antara.

However, in the view of LSI senior researcher Denny JA, the opportunity for other candidates remains open as long as they are able to meet the iron law demands to win.

Both demands increase recognition and enjoyment with measurable campaign work.

Moreover, there is still quite a long time, which is around three years or less until 2024.

The opening of opportunities can also be seen from survey data regarding voters who are still categorized as soft supporters, namely liquid voters who may now have a choice but are still very likely to change.

Their number is around 42.7 percent and that's the amount that is often referred to as no man's land, which can still be fought over by anyone.

"Only RK and DM have strong supporters, or quite high militant voters, namely RK 33.5 percent and DM 13.7 percent. Others, including Dede Yusuf, are still below five percent. will change until the election day. Unless there is a huge political storm that befalls them," he said.