Observer: PSBB Jakarta's 'Emergency Brake', Economic Contraction Will Deepen In The Fourth Quarter Of 2020

JAKARTA - The DKI Jakarta Provincial Government (Pemprov) took an emergency brake and re-implemented Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) on September 14. This decision reaped the pros and cons, because the PSBB was considered to be very influencing the national economy.

Then, will the implementation of PSBB in the Capital City cause the contraction to deepen in the third quarter? INDEF Executive Director, Tauhid Ahmad said, even without the implementation of PSBB, Indonesia's economic growth throughout 2020 would be in a negative zone. However, the handling of the PSBB this time determines whether or not the contraction will be experienced by Indonesia in the third quarter.

"Without PSBB, it will actually still be negative because of the trend in that direction. If PSBB is mishandled, I am worried not in the third quarter, but the impact in the fourth quarter," he said, when contacted by VOI, in Jakarta, Friday, September 11.

According to Tauhid, as a province that contributes 15 percent to 17 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), of course the strict application of the PSBB in DKI Jakarta will affect Indonesia's economic growth.

Moreover, said Tauhid, in the trade sector if combined with Bodetabek it could reach 30 percent. The effect is not only on DKI Jakarta but also on the surrounding area. Therefore, the handling of the PSBB this time must be effective.

Tauhid admitted that the impact on the mamang economy will be very pronounced, because DKI Jakarta has a large influence on national GDP, but the recovery or economic recovery process afterwards will be fast if the strict PSBB is effective.

"In my opinion that is the most important. Because it needs the support of all parties so that this strict PSBB can be effective. However, the approach should not be the same as the one carried out in February-March. There must be a different strategy," he said.

Tauhid said, in the midst of the high spread of COVID-19 in the country, especially in DKI Jakarta, work from home (WFH) should be carried out or work from home. This is because it will be useless if the strict PSBB is enforced but offices continue to operate.

"It's useless because later the office clusters will get bigger. If the 11 sectors yesterday were still permitted, it would not be strict. So there must be support from the central government, local governments and the community," he said.

DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan decided to restore the status of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) starting Monday, September 14. Anies admitted to having three reasons.

These three reasons are numerical parameters that currently indicate that the current condition of the COVID-19 outbreak in DKI is becoming alarming.

"From three data, namely the mortality rate, use of isolation beds, use of the special ICU for COVID-19, it shows that the plague situation in Jakarta is in an emergency," said Anies at the City Hall of DKI, Central Jakarta, Monday, September 9.

Regarding the death rate, Anies said the figure in DKI was indeed low, namely 2.7 percent. It is lower than the national death rate of 4.1 percent, even lower than the global death rate of 3.3 percent.

Although the percentage of the death rate or case fatality rate in Jakarta is still below the national and world averages, in absolute terms the number continues to increase.

Second, about the use of COVID-19 treatment beds. Concerns about the depletion of bed capacity are based on the continuing high number of active COVID-19 cases.

Third, the use of an ICU bed for COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms. According to him, if the number is not added, the ICU bed will no longer be able to accommodate patients on September 15. When the capacity has been increased but no "emergency brake" is applied, it will return to full capacity on 25 September.

"In short, we will increase capacity. But, if there are no strict restrictions, then this is just buying time. In less than a month, the hospital will be full again," explained Anies.