It Is Feared That The Uncertainty Of Trump's Military Policy Will Trigger A Major War

JAKARTA - Amid rising tensions between the United States (US) with North Korea (North Korea) and Iran, US President Donald Trump's advisers are hesitant to give military options. This is because he is concerned that Trump might accidentally lead the US into war.

Launching from CNN, Friday 7 August, those thoughts are featured in an upcoming book, entitled The Madman Theory: Trump Takes on the World. The book, written by Harper Collins, will appear on August 11.

As we all know the hot and cold relationship between Trump and Kim Jong-un occurred during Trump's presidency. But in 2017, when Trump dubbed Kim Jong-un the 'little rocket man', the North Korean dictator responded by calling him a fool.

"We used to think of Kim Jong-un as someone who could not be predicted. Now we have Trump as someone who is unpredictable," said Joseph Yun, who served as President Trump's special representative for North Korean policy until 2018.

Yun recalled that during a worsening standoff with North Korea in 2017, the US military was hesitant to provide Trump with various military options. This is because they are worried that he might order a large-scale military attack on North Korea.

"You have to be careful what choices you give him (Trump). We are very careful, because whatever options you give, he can use them," said Yun.

In 2019, Trump and his team are considering military options against Iran in response to escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf. Senior US military officials explained to US partners in the region and Iran that they could not predict Trump's decision.

"We are telling allies that we don't know what the President will do to Iran," said Mick Mulroy, deputy assistant minister of defense for the Middle East until 2019.

"It's possible that he can make a decision that will lead to an escalation of the conflict, and that escalation could lead to war, so they need to convey it to Iran so they realize even their staff doesn't know what will happen if they attack other, oil facilities, for example," he added. Mulroy.

The warning is part of a long-term effort to contain some of Trump's worst pushbacks when it comes to military action abroad. Earlier, in September 2018, when several attacks hit an area near the US Embassy in Baghdad that caused no casualties or serious damage.

The US military was shocked by the attitude of senior officials at the National Security Council who gave the military options for the US to retaliate against Iran. The National Security Council official said Trump wanted to know immediately how and when the US could respond to attacks.

President Trump balked at Iran's 2019 action against the downing of a US drone over international airspace. But at the same time, Trump also canceled military action by US warplanes that were already in the air. Trump also decided not to retaliate after Iran attacked an oil facility in Saudi Arabia which temporarily closed half of Saudi Arabia's oil production.

"Well, (Trump) didn't want to do it, so we're done," recalled Mulroy. "The first time it happened, I thought there was some kind of relief. The second time, I was in shock."

"So it's like 'What do you mean, we didn't do anything?' I mean, we have to do something, "said Mulroy.

Trump's uncertainty is common knowledge. US adversaries are well aware that its own advisers and the institutions they lead often don't know Trump's intentions. This was conveyed directly by Susan Gordon, the number two intelligence official in the US. "Our partners, enemies and competitors know we don't know the next fight," said Gordon.

With other presidents or other governments, such deliberate uncertainty can be seen as a form of flaw. It also identifies it as a criticism.

But in the view of Trump and his very loyal supporters, his uncertainty is a force worthy of praise. "For him, uncertainty is the card he likes," Yun concluded.