Epidemiologist: Don't Dream COVID-19 Can Be Overcome Soon

JAKARTA - Don't expect the COVID-19 pandemic to end quickly. According to epidemiologists, the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia is still ongoing, it is even predicted until 2022.

University of Indonesia (UI) epidemiologist and biostatistics expert, Pandu Riono reminded that the government is really working extraordinary in its handling. Pandu said that if the COVID-19 pandemic was not resolved immediately, it would be impossible for the government to recover the economy. Not only that, he considered, the public must also obey health protocols.

Furthermore, said Pandu, when large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) were relaxed there was an increase in community mobility. To prevent the emergence of new clusters, the community must wear masks, wash their hands, and maintain a distance (3M).

According to Pandu, it is not enough to just encourage the public to run 3M, the government also conducts massive tracking using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), not by rapid test.

"Positive cases in Indonesia will continue to rise. We do not know when the peak will be. Until the end of December (2020) cases will continue to rise," he said, in a virtual discussion, Monday, August 3.

Pandu explained, if it continues to increase, the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia is predicted to occur in mid-2021, while the decrease in cases could be in early 2022. However, he said, the exact peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia cannot be predicted due to testing. is still low.

"This assumption is not necessarily correct. In general, modeling has many mistakes because it starts on assumptions that are not necessarily correct. If we do an active survey, testing, tracking, and isolation better, we can reduce the spike," he explained.

But unfortunately the increase in COVID-19 cases in Indonesia was not accompanied by speed in conducting testing. He also explained the importance of reviewing the positive rate, not just increasing the number of cases.

"The population has to be 3M, what government? What Ministry of Health? What task force? That is to carry out active surveillance, what is it? Testing. PCR testing, don't use rapid tests anymore. That's awkward. Because it doesn't detect people with viruses. We have to detect people with viruses. , then we tracked it, and isolated it. That's the most basic way to control infectious diseases, "he said.

According to Pandu, it is the health system that can track the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of that, he said, the government's role is not just a task force committee.

"This pandemic must be resolved as a state, not a committee, not a task force, a task force. Who is the country? The president and his ministers. Because it is a system, we see it, regardless of who is the minister and we can do it," he said.

Pandu also said he was surprised by the large number of long distance movements on the Eid al-Adha holiday. He said, if it was not accompanied by 3M, then in the next two to 3 weeks there would be a spike of new uncontrollable cases.

"We see Jakarta from around this buffer area real data from Facebook. It happens that UI is collaborating with Facebook. We can access data up to the village level, how to follow the movement of the population in Indonesia. Something we observe is the pattern of disease spread, we see how powerful it is. movement of the population every day, "he said.