Agus Marto: Does Indonesia Want A Recession? Be Disciplined In Maintaining Health Protocols!

JAKARTA - The threat of the COVID-19 pandemic does not only stop at human health, but also 'infects' the global economy. Almost all countries are reporting an economic downturn due to this virus. In the worst case, it could lead to a recession. One entry into the abyss of recession is South Korea.

What is Indonesia's position? Can Indonesia survive the economic recession caused by COVID-19? Former Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowardojo said that in the second quarter Indonesia's economic growth contracted by minus 4 to 6 percent. If in the third quarter Indonesia remains negative, then Indonesia will enter the brink of recession.

However, Agus said, Indonesia could avoid a recession if it could take advantage of the momentum of the new normality and the discipline of health protocols. However, according to him, the response to public health due to COVID-19 in Indonesia has not been very successful.

Furthermore, Agus said, the challenges faced by Indonesia would be even greater if the second wave or the second wave of the pandemic occurred.

"The biggest risk is if the first wave is not finished and the next wave after subsiding a little, there will be a second wave," he said, in a virtual discussion, Monday, August 3.

Agus projects that the economic performance in the third quarter of 2020 can be positive. Even though the results are negative, he estimates that maybe only half a percent and it can achieve one percent positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 or if conditions are better it could be above 3 percent.

"In the third quarter, if the current momentum is maintained, we can avoid a review that does not need two quarters of negative economic growth to occur," he explained.

However, Agus stressed, the success or failure of this economic stabilization effort depends on discipline in implementing health protocols. Therefore, health care is very decisive.

"It is a big challenge and therefore the entire community must be invited, we cannot rely solely on the government," he said.

This senior banker said that the current crisis in Indonesia is a problem with social impacts. This is because the community cannot hold meetings, because they avoid contracting COVID-19 and must stay at home. They cannot even worship in places of worship and all are experiencing difficult economic conditions. Some also lost their job opportunities.

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"In other countries, the second wave, has carried out hard activities, not only PSBB, but absolute closure. The first wave of Indonesia has not been completed. For that we must be very careful. The latest developments are many new clusters (COVID-19)," he said.

On the same occasion, Executive Secretary I of the Committee for Handling COVID-19 and National Economic Recovery (PEN) Raden Pardede said the Indonesian economy would experience contraction. However, he said, Indonesia's condition was still much better than other countries.

"Remember other countries are worse off. We have received the second quarter of 2020 will experience a negative. The question is whether the third quarter is negative or not?" Said Raden.

Raden said, technically, if you experience negative economic growth or a contraction in the third quarter, the economy will experience a recession. If the fourth quarter of 2020 experiences negative growth, it is still called a recession.

"If next year it is still negative it means depression. Economically, this is what we will try to prevent. So we hope that in the third quarter it will not be negative," he said.

To avoid this recession, the prerequisite at the beginning is to feel safe and healthy first. Raden said it should not be seen that it only focuses the government's attention on the economy.

"We cannot equate ourselves with developed countries which can carry out a lockdown for a long time. What is the maximum we can do in a situation like now. TLI: Testing, Tracking and Isolation. It must be done. This will be the focus for the next few months. ahead, "he explained.

Raden said that his party would carry out a more massive PCR test and trace it to check for COVID-19 to the public.

"Last night we discussed that there must be a significant increase in government spending. The government has prepared a fairly large fund this year, but has not learned yet. Today there will be a National Coordination Meeting on this. So that spending on our PCR procurement is according to WHO standards," he said. .

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