ISC Survey: Prabowo Subianto's Electability Is Still Strong, Supported By Most Jokowi Voters

President Jokowi with Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Survey Center (ISC) released the results of the 2024 presidential candidate electability survey. Prabowo is still firmly the choice of the majority of respondents.

ISC researcher Chairul Pane submitted the results of a survey with 1,200 respondents showing the majority of support for Prabowo Subianto.

"We ask if the presidential election is held today, which presidential candidate will you choose below, Prabowo Subianto's answer is 34.5 percent," Chairul said in his statement, Wednesday, October 4.

Prabowo's name was followed by Ganjar Pranowo, although it was still not quite significant, at 27.3 percent. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan's name was at 19.1 percent.

Apart from Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies, there are several names that have low percentages including Erick Thohir (3 percent), Sandiaga Uno (2.7 percent), Ridwan Kamil (2.5 percent).

Then Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (1.4 percent), Khofifah Indar Paranwasa (1.4 percent), Mahfud MD (1.3 percent), Airlangga Hartarto (1 percent), Andika Perkasa (0.8 percent), Gibran Rakabuming Raka (0.5 percent) and Tito Karnavian (0.4 percent).

In this survey, ISC conducted simulations with three candidates who have high electability.

"Prabowo got 42.3 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 33.1 percent and Anies Baswedan 20.4 percent. Then those who did not answer 4.2 percent," he explained.

Meanwhile, in the head-to-head simulation, Chairul said that respondents chose Prabowo with 51.4 percent and Ganjar with 39.2 percent.

Meanwhile, when Prabowo was faced with Anies Baswedan, Prabowo's election was superior to 55 percent compared to 35.1 percent.

"Prabowo is still at the peak of electability both in the simulation of 13 presidential candidates, 3 presidential candidates and head-to-head simulations either with Ganjar or with Anies," explained Chairul.

Residents Of NU Tend To Support Prabowo

In addition, Chairul also measures voters from the background of his mass organizations. There are 5 (five) categories that are presented, namely Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Muhammadiyah, Salafiyah, not Islamic organizations and those who are not willing to answer.

From the data presented by ISC, the majority of people with NU backgrounds tend to choose Prabowo Subianto with a percentage of 36.3 percent. Meanwhile, those who chose Ganjar were 32.8 percent, and 26 percent chose Anies.

Likewise, for those who affiliate with Muhammadiyah organizations, they tend to choose Prabowo Subainto with a score of 34, percent. Then only 24.3 percent supported Ganjar, while 33.1 percent chose Anies.

Meanwhile, respondents who claim to be salafi groups tend to totally choose Anies Baswedan with a percentage of 100 percent.

"The voters who claim to be NU residents tend to be bigger to Prabowo than Ganjar and Anies. And voters who identify themselves Muhammadiyah also tend to be bigger to Prabowo than Anies and Ganjar," explained Chairul.

Prabowo Voters Loyal Supporters

On the other hand, ISC also measures the electability of the three presidential candidates who excel when viewed from the political reference background of their voters. The data shows that Prabowo Subianto is flooded with support from Jokowi-Maruf supporters in the 2019 Presidential Election, and still has a loyal mass base in the previous election.

For Jokowi-Maruf supporters who chose Prabowo as much as 35.8 percent, Ganjar with 43.7 percent. While Anies only 13.2 percent.

Meanwhile, there were 59.4 percent of Prabowo-Sandi supporters who chose Prabowo in the 2024 presidential election, 10.2 percent of Ganjar Pranowo, and 26.7 percent of Anies.

This ISC survey was conducted by involving 1,200 respondents spread across 34 provinces in the period 17-27 November 2023. The methodology used is multistage random sampling with a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error (MoE) of 2.83 percent.