Electability Trend Survey, SMRC: Ganjar Up, Prabowo Stagnant, And Anies Down

Ganjar Pranowo (Photo via Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - The survey institute Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting has again released the electability trend of three figures who have the potential to become presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election.

As a result, Ganjar Pranowo's electability trend has increased. Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto tends to stagnate. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan, in fact, experienced a decline.

SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani explained that in the last two years, from May 2021 to May 2023, support for Ganjar increased from 25.5 percent to 39.2 percent.

Meanwhile, Prabowo tends to stagnate from 34.1 percent to 32.1 percent. Meanwhile, Anies tends to decline from 23.5 percent to 19.7 percent.

"In the past month, support for Ganjar strengthened after he was declared a presidential candidate from 33.2 percent in early April 2023 to 39.2 percent in early May 2023, an increase of 6 percent," Deni said in a virtual presentation of the survey results, Friday, May 12.

Meanwhile, Prabowo, Deni said that it was relatively stable from 31.5 percent to 32.1 percent. Meanwhile, support for Anies fell from 24.2 percent to 19.7 percent.

"Ganjar seems to have attracted Anies' voice and has not decided in the past month," he said.

The population of this survey is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in general elections, namely those who are 17 years old or older, or are already married when the survey is conducted.

From that population, 1,220 respondents were randomly selected using the multistage random sampling method.

The response rate (respondents who can be interviewed validly) is 1,020 or 84 percent. A total of 1,020 respondents were analyzed.

The survey margin of error with the sample size is estimated at 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level (symple random sampling assumption). Selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained. Quality control of the interview results was conducted randomly by 20 percent of the total sample by supervisors by returning to the selected respondents (spot check).

In the quality control, no significant errors were found. The field interview time is April 30 - May 7, 2023.