Jakarta Transition PSBB After Demonstration, Epidemiologist: COVID-19 Cases Could Increase Two Times

Demonstration against the Job Creation Law in Jakarta, 8 October (Irfan Meidianto)

JAKARTA - Epidemiologist from the Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia (FKM UI), Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono, assessed that it is not right for DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan to implement the transitional PSBB period starting today.

Miko thought that Anies was too hasty to re-implement the transitional PSBB. This is because there are concerns that the transmission of COVID-19 will increase due to the holding of a demonstration against the Job Creation Law on Thursday, October 8.

"The governor is too hasty in carrying out the transition PSBB. Because there was a multiplayer effect when the transitional PSBB was implemented after the demonstration a few days ago," Miko said when contacted by VOI , Monday, October 12.

Miko estimated that the increase in the number of daily COVID-19 cases could be doubled due to the easing of restrictions that were carried out after demonstrations.

"Now, the average increase of cases in DKI is 900, with the demo plus the implementation of the transitional PSBB, it could be doubled, so it could be around 1,800 cases per day. Because, the reproduction number might be 2," he explained. .

Demonstration against the Job Creation Law in Jakarta, 8 October (Irfan Meidianto)

Miko said that the increase in the number of COVID-19 referral hospitals and the reduction in the death rate, which currently reaches 2.2 percent, does not guarantee that the handling of COVID-19 will be controlled during the transitional PSBB period.

"Now maybe the bed is still 65 percent occupied. However, once the case increase is doubled due to the multiplayer effect, it will fill up very quickly," he said.

Therefore, Miko suggested that Anies also apply local scale social restrictions (PSBL) when the transitional PSBB volume II took effect, which lasted until October 25.

"The local scale social restrictions should also be maintained in a number of areas during this transitional period, at the RW or kelurahan level. If there is no provincial PSBB, local restrictions will be made," he explained.

For information, the transition back to PSBB is an option based on the results of the implementation of PSBB volume two, which shows a slowdown in the increase in positive cases and active cases, although there is still an increase in transmission.

Furthermore, Anies conveyed that this decision was based on several indicators, namely daily case reports, daily death cases, active case trends, and the level of filling of COVID-19 Referral Hospitals.

"We need to emphasize that discipline must remain high so that the chain of transmission remains under control and we do not have to carry out an emergency brake again," he said.

Demonstration against the Job Creation Law in Jakarta, 8 October (Irfan Meidianto)

There is an early sign of a decrease in daily positive cases in the last 7 days. The decrease in daily cases increase since PSBB tightening is shown in the graph of cases onset and also in the Rt value or virus reproduction.

Based on data compiled by FKM UI, Jakarta's Rt value was 1.14 at the beginning of September and currently it has decreased to 1.07. This means that currently 100 people have the potential to transmit the virus to 107 other people.

In the period of 26 September to 9 October 2020, there was a decline again from the condition in the previous 14 days, where the number of positive cases increased by 22 percent or 15,437 cases, compared to the previous increase of 31 percent or 16,606 cases.

Meanwhile, active cases increased by only 3.81 percent or as many as 492 cases, compared to the previous increase of 9.08 percent or 1,074 cases. From late September to early October the number of daily active cases began to consistently flatten, indicating a slowdown in transmission.

Anies said the death rate or CFR Jakarta also continued to decline to the current level of 2.2 percent. The death rate has also decreased, the prediction without strict PSBB is that the daily death rate of positive cases in Jakarta currently reaches 28 per day, currently the rate is 18 per day.