فهم الحركة السريعة لحركة طالبان وما يحدث في أفغانستان
JAKARTA - The Taliban group has taken control of the Afghan capital, Kabul. They have also occupied the Presidential Palace. The Taliban are now starting to discuss a new government structure. The situation has rapidly developed in Afghanistan in recent weeks. What happened?
Taliban spokesman Sohail Shaheen did not answer whether the new government would be open to members of the Afghan government under Ashraf Ghani. Even so, Shaheen expressed an open position regarding the involvement of Afghan police and army officials in the new government.
All who surrendered their weapons and joined the Taliban would be pardoned, Shaheen said. The Taliban are eyeing a number of national figures to become part of the new government. He guaranteed the new government would be inclusive, while still involving non-Taliban Afghans in it.
"That means other Afghans also have participation in the government," Shaheen said, quoted by CNN, Sunday, August 15.
4/4and assured of his country's constructive role in this regard. pic.twitter.com/F8RriIDrMX
— Suhail Shaheen. ل اهین (@suhailshaeen1) July 8, 2021
"I think about an inclusive government in Afghanistan. This is a demand and a desire. This is also for the security of the entire population of Afghanistan," said Shaheen, quoted by AP, Monday, August 16.
The Taliban have the upper hand. After occupying Kabul, the Taliban captured the Presidential Palace on Sunday, August 16. Before Kabul, the Taliban also captured a number of strategic cities, such as Kandahar, Jalalabad, Kandahar, Mizar-i-Shafr, and many other cities. Some were even taken without a fight.
Before announcing plans to form a new government, the Taliban was reportedly ready to declare the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan again, according to an anonymous Taliban official. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a country that had existed under the Taliban.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was overthrown by United States (US) troops after the September 11, 2001 (911) attacks. Another development regarding the Taliban's control in Afghanistan, the group has also rejected proposals to form a transitional government and seek full power over.
How can the domination of the Taliban grow so fast?Last Thursday, August 12, a US defense official leaked intelligence predicting how quickly the Taliban could take Kabul: 90 days. The results are much faster than expected. At that time Kabul was still under the control of the Afghan military, indeed. And the anonymous official still implies confidence the Afghan military can handle the Taliban.
"But this is not a foregone conclusion," he said.
In theory, the Afghan security forces shouldn't be so easily rolled up. Their number is more than 300 thousand, consisting of the army, air and police. Especially considering the boasts of British and US generals about their role in building a strong Afghan army during their 20 years of involvement in conflicts in the region.
However, according to Afghanistan's records, it is difficult to recruit members of the security forces. The army and police have a bad history of death, desertion and corruption. The third is crucial. Many troop commanders reportedly claim budgets for building troops. In fact, it was never done. This term is known as "ghost army."
Quoted by the BBC, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported the serious impact of corruption on the resilience of the Afghan military before the US Congress. SIGAR also highlighted the accuracy of data on Afghan forces at issue. Whereas in martial law this kind of data is very important to determine strategy.
There is an interesting analysis of why the Afghan military forces are so lax in defending an area. It is said that many troops were sent to the region, where they had no tribal or familial relations. This mental condition is crucial and is believed to be the reason why many troops easily leave the post without fighting back.
The Taliban's own strength is estimated at 60,000, according to data from the US Center for Combating Terrorism at West Point. The Taliban side is also reinforced with other militia groups and support units. So the total troops on the side of the Taliban is predicted to be more than 200 thousand people. Another problem from the Afghan side is the division of political factions at the local level.
President Ashraf Ghani himself has left Afghanistan. It is not known exactly where he went. But Afghanistan's leading media group, Tolo News, said Ashraf Ghani had gone to Tajikistan. Ashraf Ghani has also acknowledged the Taliban's victory and declared the Taliban's responsibility for Afghanistan's future.
"The Taliban have won by the judgment of their swords and weapons, and are now responsible for the honor, property and self-defense of their citizens," Ghani said in a statement posted to Facebook citing CNA, Sunday, August 15.
"They are now facing a new historical test. Either they will defend the name and honor of Afghanistan or they will prioritize other places and networks," he added, saying he was leaving to prevent a "flood of bloodshed."
Afghans said they were disappointed with Ashraf Ghani's attitude. Hundreds of thousands are now displaced. According to Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for the Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, 390,000 Afghans have fled for shelter. This is a big jump in the movement of people since May. Many refugees live in the open.
"Despite the deteriorating security situation, humanitarian agencies remained on site and delivered aid to people in need, which numbered 7.8 million people in the first six months of this year," Dujarric said. August "The ability of the UN and local and international NGOs to provide assistance depends on bureaucracy by the parties, security of staff, and additional funds mobilized immediately," added Dujarric.
How did the Afghan war start and how did it develop?Twenty years ago, the September 11, 2001 (9/11) attacks killed three thousand people. Several hijacked planes crashed into the World Trade Center (WTC) in New York. The Pentagon in Arlington County, Virginia was also targeted. The fourth plane crashed in a field in Pennsylvania. The incident became an important historical line in viewing the Afghan conflict today.
Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was found responsible for 9/11. At that time the Taliban immediately took a position to protect Osama. The US asked the Taliban, who controlled Afghanistan at the time, to hand over Osama. But the Taliban refused. Then the US launched air strikes against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan one month after 9/11.
The attack marked the beginning of a two-decade war in Afghanistan. Then in two months the US and coalition countries, allied with armed groups in Afghanistan, overthrew the Taliban. The power of the Taliban is collapsing. The followers fled to Pakistan. Even so the Taliban never really left. From hiding they spread influence.
The Taliban finance themselves through tax collections, mining, and the narcotics trade. In 2004, the new Afghan government took power. But the Taliban did not give up by continuing to carry out attacks. However, it should be noted that the war in Afghanistan did not really begin during the US and coalition invasion.
Afghanistan has been at war for a long time. The most significant occurred in the late 1970s, when Soviet Union troops invaded Afghanistan in support of a communist-leaning government. The armed group, the Mujahideen, backed by the US, China, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan took to war against Soviet forces and the communist government.
In 1989, Soviet troops left Afghanistan. But the war was not over. Afghanistan is caught in a civil war. It was at this time that the Taliban spread their influence. They were so well known in the 1990s. The Taliban emerged with the spirit of restoring security and eradicating corruption. Sharia law was widely applied at that time.
The execution of murderers and adulterers is a public spectacle. The thieves are amputated. Women are required to wear the burka. While men must grow and maintain beards. At that time the Taliban also banned music, television, and cinema. For children, those who are girls and over ten years old are prohibited from attending school.
What is the content of the Trump-Taliban agreement that affects this situation?In February 2020, US President Donald Trump - now replaced by Joe Biden - signed a peace restoration agreement. In the agreement it was concluded that the US and its fellow NATO allies would withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Taliban have agreed not to let the area they control become an area of operation for Al Qaeda and other armed groups.
The two sides also promised to release prisoners from each other. Five thousand Taliban fighters were released within months of the deal. The US also promised to lift sanctions and coordinate with the United Nations (UN) on lifting other sanctions for the United Nations. On that occasion the US negotiated directly with the Taliban without involving the Afghan government.
"It's time, after all these years, to bring our citizens home," Trump said at the time.
According to the agreement, the withdrawal of US and NATO troops was carried out. In January 2021, at the beginning of his administration, Biden actually postponed the deadline for the withdrawal of US troops. The postponement, Biden said, was made for further policy review. In April, Biden unanimously continued with the troop withdrawal plan with August 31 as the deadline.
The US has actually admitted to a miscalculation in its strategy to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. They were surprised the Taliban was so quick to build up a full force and seize vital areas in Afghanistan. However, Biden has declared speeding up the withdrawal of the remaining 2,500 troops by August 31. Trump has also criticized this.
"If I were president, the world would see the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as a conditional move," Trump said in a statement.
The US also admits to misestimating the strength of the Afghan military, which they think is capable of dealing with the Taliban insurgency. "The fact that we are seeing that (Afghanistan) force is not capable of defending the country ... And it's happening faster than we thought," US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in an interview with CNN.
Now the last troops from the US and NATO have left Bagram Air Base, the center of military operations they have been occupying. Interestingly, the departure was carried out quietly, even without notification to the Afghan government.
Even so, according to the AP, the US still has 650 military personnel in Afghanistan. The troops are tasked with protecting diplomats and guarding Kabul's international airport.
*Read other information about AFGHANISTAN Fauzi Iyabu and Yudhistira Mahabharata.
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