Ipsos Public Affairs Survey, Prabowo-Gibran Loses To Ganjar-Mahfud If The Election Is Two Rounds

JAKARTA - The social research institute, Ipsos Public Affairs released the results of a survey entitled 'Dilema Prabowo Subianto' through a zoom meeting on Saturday, October 21. The theme raised refers to issues that are currently being discussed on various media platforms today.

As is known, a few days ago two pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates had registered with the KPU, namely Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, then Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD. However, Prabowo Subianto is still hesitant to choose the representative who will accompany him.

Ipsos Senior Researcher, Arif Nurul Iman said Ipsos conducted a survey using the telesurvey method in the period 17-19 October 2023 where two candidate pairs had registered with the KPU. Ipsos then conducted a selection simulation where Prabowo was paired with Gibran Rakabuming or Erick Thohir.

From the simulation results of three presidential candidates where Prabowo was paired with Gibran, the results were Ganjar-Mahfud 31.98 percent, then Prabowo-Gibran 31.32 percent, and Anies-Imin 28.91 percent. Then if Prabowo was paired with Erick, the result was Prabowo-Erick got 37.53 percent, followed by Ganjar-Mahfud 31.73 percent, then Anies-Imin 28.91 percent.

"Prabowo-Erick excels in the simulation of three candidate pairs," said Arif.

Then if the election has to be done with two rounds, both options for the Prabowo pair are said to be able to penetrate into the second round. But the votes of the Prabowo-Gibran pair will be left behind with the results of Ganjar-Mahfud getting 48.72 percent and Prabowo-Gibran 41.67 percent.

"But if Prabowo-Erick advances to the second round then the result is 51.86 percent while Ganjar-Mahfud gets 47.06 percent. This means that Prabowo-Erick can win in the second round," he said.